Initial Breakdown of the Bracket
Before we get into a breakdown of the bracket as a whole, let me first be the 567th person in the last two days to reiterate how hard the tournament selection committee's job is. It's like picking teams at recess - someone's feelings are always going to get hurt. With that in mind, I'm pretty pleased with this field. Some of the seedings are way off, but that's how it is every year. Some teams shouldn't be in the dance, but that's what we said about George Mason last year and look how that turned out. All in all, I like the bracket, but here are the main things that intrigued me:
1. No Syracuse
Since the bracket came out, I've been debating whether Syracuse deserved to be in. The other day, I wrote that they should be included in the dance, no questions asked. Now that I've seen the bracket and thought it through all over again, I can see how they would be left out. To my mind, Syracuse, Drexel and Old Dominion were all essentially battling for the same at-large bid (I think Xavier was in all the way because of their stellar year in an improved A-10). So let's make sense of why ODU ended up in the dance. First, the Monarchs finished higher in the CAA than Drexel by two games and beat the Dragons in both match-ups this season. They also beat Georgetown when the Hoyas were a fragment of what they are today, but the comittee gave Georgetown a two seed which tells you that the selection people put significant value on that early season win for ODU. Meanwhile, Drexel rampaged through its non-conference schedule, beating Syracuse, Villanova and Creighton - two of which are in the field of 65. But the two losses to ODU doomed Bruiser Flint's boys, as the committee apparently valued head-to-head competition over the comparison of each team's laundry list of good wins. Syracuse probably had the least impressive resume of these three teams, but they hold the trump card because they play in a power conference that got better as the season wore on. ODU beat G'town in the beginning of the year. So what? The 'Cuse beat the Hoyas when they were actually playing like a number two seed. They also beat Marquette (an eight seed, which is preposterous, but more on that later) and finished a game higher than Villanova (a nine seed) in the conference. Compared to 'Nova, they also played an equally tough Big East schedule with both schools facing four ranked teams over the course of the conference season. And Syracuse faired better in the conference season than a team that's in the field.
I guess in the end it came down to head to head match-ups. The committee used the transitive property that we all used when we were five to figure out if we could beat the next opponent in our crappy soccer league because we beat a team that had beaten them. The committee did the same thing: Drexel beat Syracuse but ODU beat Drexel so ODU beats out Drexel AND, by the trusty transitive property that I'm pretty sure comes from high school geometry, ODU beats out Syracuse.
Obviously the committee didn't think exactly that way, but by putting ODU in the tourney, they essentially said that they couldn't separate the resumes of the three except through head-to-head play (ODU, after all, has the least impressive non-conference resume). Each team had good wins. Each team had bad losses. All I'd say is that in these difficult cases, the team that plays in the toughest conference ought to have the edge. Syracuse faced stiffer competition on a nightly basis and got admirable results. They might not be head and shoulders above ODU or Drexel on paper, but their conference schedule should have been enough to get them in. Now that I’ve said this, watch ODU go to the Final Four.
2. The Number One Seeds
Florida woke up from its late season nap last week just in time to retain the number one seed its been in possession of all year long. OSU was a sure thing since the end of January and Kansas had the third one seed wrapped up when UCLA went out in the first round of their conference tournament and the Jayhawks didn’t. Those are the only three true number one seeds in this tournament, though. I know UNC won its conference tournament to salvage the fourth one seed but the Heels were on a cake walk to the finals, where they still only had to play N.C. State. (If you want to see how overrated the ACC was this season, take a look at the conference tournament bracket. None of the top six teams were strong enough to hold off the bottom of the conference. The tournament was a mess after the first day). Now the Heels, who have been about as consistent as Lindsey Lohan's hair color this season, get the last one seed because UCLA pulled a Florida in the first round of the Pac-10 tourney. They won’t not be around for long, though, with Kevin Durant awaiting UNC in the Sweet Sixteen.
3. Some Weird Seedings
I won't attempt to explain these seedings because it's just not worth it. Most of these schools will be out by the Round of Sixteen. So I'll merely call attention to some silly committee decisions:
- Marquette is an eight seed and Southern Cal is a five seed. I’m still pretty sure the USC football team is athletic enough to beat USC basketball.
- Louisville and Notre Dame both got insulted with six seeds. Louisville is always seeded absurdly low, like two years ago when they were a four seed and made the Final Four. But a six seed for a team ranked in the top twenty is pretty surreal. Also, the Notre Dame-Oregon game on Sunday will be crucial to the Midwest bracket. Both of those teams could knock off Florida. Actually, I've picked Oregon to win that game and then go on to win the region. You heard it here.
- Illinois is in the tournament. So is Purdue. Their games will bore you beyond belief. If either is on television in your area, watch spring training baseball. It will be infinitely more exhilarating.
- Tennessee is a five seed. Did they do this just to ensure that a 12 will knock off a five? Will the earth stop spinning if all the five seeds go on to the second round. I say it’s too risky to test it. Kudos to the committee.
4. Random Predictions
Michigan State will beat Marquette and then give UNC trouble before losing. Kevin Durant is too good for words and UNC doesn't play a lick of defense. The Heels will be out in the Sweet Sixteen. The mini bracket involving Tennessee, Long Beach St., Virginia and Albany has no clear favorite, so I'm going with Albany. Upstate NEEDS this. Pitt will beat UCLA in the Sweet Sixteen because they have the guards to slow it down and a big man (Aaron Gray) that the undersized Bruins can't stop. Pitt will then get killed by Kansas who is my pick to win it all. Too much O and too much D in Lawrence.
I'll be back tomorrow and Thursday for breakdowns of brackets and individual individual games - but not those involving Purdue or Illinois. Seriously, they're both terrible.
1. No Syracuse
Since the bracket came out, I've been debating whether Syracuse deserved to be in. The other day, I wrote that they should be included in the dance, no questions asked. Now that I've seen the bracket and thought it through all over again, I can see how they would be left out. To my mind, Syracuse, Drexel and Old Dominion were all essentially battling for the same at-large bid (I think Xavier was in all the way because of their stellar year in an improved A-10). So let's make sense of why ODU ended up in the dance. First, the Monarchs finished higher in the CAA than Drexel by two games and beat the Dragons in both match-ups this season. They also beat Georgetown when the Hoyas were a fragment of what they are today, but the comittee gave Georgetown a two seed which tells you that the selection people put significant value on that early season win for ODU. Meanwhile, Drexel rampaged through its non-conference schedule, beating Syracuse, Villanova and Creighton - two of which are in the field of 65. But the two losses to ODU doomed Bruiser Flint's boys, as the committee apparently valued head-to-head competition over the comparison of each team's laundry list of good wins. Syracuse probably had the least impressive resume of these three teams, but they hold the trump card because they play in a power conference that got better as the season wore on. ODU beat G'town in the beginning of the year. So what? The 'Cuse beat the Hoyas when they were actually playing like a number two seed. They also beat Marquette (an eight seed, which is preposterous, but more on that later) and finished a game higher than Villanova (a nine seed) in the conference. Compared to 'Nova, they also played an equally tough Big East schedule with both schools facing four ranked teams over the course of the conference season. And Syracuse faired better in the conference season than a team that's in the field.
I guess in the end it came down to head to head match-ups. The committee used the transitive property that we all used when we were five to figure out if we could beat the next opponent in our crappy soccer league because we beat a team that had beaten them. The committee did the same thing: Drexel beat Syracuse but ODU beat Drexel so ODU beats out Drexel AND, by the trusty transitive property that I'm pretty sure comes from high school geometry, ODU beats out Syracuse.
Obviously the committee didn't think exactly that way, but by putting ODU in the tourney, they essentially said that they couldn't separate the resumes of the three except through head-to-head play (ODU, after all, has the least impressive non-conference resume). Each team had good wins. Each team had bad losses. All I'd say is that in these difficult cases, the team that plays in the toughest conference ought to have the edge. Syracuse faced stiffer competition on a nightly basis and got admirable results. They might not be head and shoulders above ODU or Drexel on paper, but their conference schedule should have been enough to get them in. Now that I’ve said this, watch ODU go to the Final Four.
2. The Number One Seeds
Florida woke up from its late season nap last week just in time to retain the number one seed its been in possession of all year long. OSU was a sure thing since the end of January and Kansas had the third one seed wrapped up when UCLA went out in the first round of their conference tournament and the Jayhawks didn’t. Those are the only three true number one seeds in this tournament, though. I know UNC won its conference tournament to salvage the fourth one seed but the Heels were on a cake walk to the finals, where they still only had to play N.C. State. (If you want to see how overrated the ACC was this season, take a look at the conference tournament bracket. None of the top six teams were strong enough to hold off the bottom of the conference. The tournament was a mess after the first day). Now the Heels, who have been about as consistent as Lindsey Lohan's hair color this season, get the last one seed because UCLA pulled a Florida in the first round of the Pac-10 tourney. They won’t not be around for long, though, with Kevin Durant awaiting UNC in the Sweet Sixteen.
3. Some Weird Seedings
I won't attempt to explain these seedings because it's just not worth it. Most of these schools will be out by the Round of Sixteen. So I'll merely call attention to some silly committee decisions:
- Marquette is an eight seed and Southern Cal is a five seed. I’m still pretty sure the USC football team is athletic enough to beat USC basketball.
- Louisville and Notre Dame both got insulted with six seeds. Louisville is always seeded absurdly low, like two years ago when they were a four seed and made the Final Four. But a six seed for a team ranked in the top twenty is pretty surreal. Also, the Notre Dame-Oregon game on Sunday will be crucial to the Midwest bracket. Both of those teams could knock off Florida. Actually, I've picked Oregon to win that game and then go on to win the region. You heard it here.
- Illinois is in the tournament. So is Purdue. Their games will bore you beyond belief. If either is on television in your area, watch spring training baseball. It will be infinitely more exhilarating.
- Tennessee is a five seed. Did they do this just to ensure that a 12 will knock off a five? Will the earth stop spinning if all the five seeds go on to the second round. I say it’s too risky to test it. Kudos to the committee.
4. Random Predictions
Michigan State will beat Marquette and then give UNC trouble before losing. Kevin Durant is too good for words and UNC doesn't play a lick of defense. The Heels will be out in the Sweet Sixteen. The mini bracket involving Tennessee, Long Beach St., Virginia and Albany has no clear favorite, so I'm going with Albany. Upstate NEEDS this. Pitt will beat UCLA in the Sweet Sixteen because they have the guards to slow it down and a big man (Aaron Gray) that the undersized Bruins can't stop. Pitt will then get killed by Kansas who is my pick to win it all. Too much O and too much D in Lawrence.
I'll be back tomorrow and Thursday for breakdowns of brackets and individual individual games - but not those involving Purdue or Illinois. Seriously, they're both terrible.
Labels: 2007 Tournament
posted by jcanzo at 2:57 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home