Friday, March 02, 2007

My Elite Eight

Every two weeks during the season, I like to take stock of who I think the country's best eight team's are. Granted, we don't know what the 2007 brackett is going to look like so some of my picks could very well knock each other out before the actual Elite Eight, but here's who the first four of who I think the top eight teams are right now, with team's 5-8 coming tomorrow:

1. UCLA

This is pretty much a pick 'em between the Bruins and Kansas, but the Bruins have played a tougher schedule and have beaten all but one of the ranked opponents they have played. Their one loss to a ranked team came at Oregon, a difficult place to play, and by just two points. In other words, the loss was extremely justifiable. Plus, even though no one in the eastern time zone will admit this, the Pac-10 is the toughest conference, top to bottom, in the country. It's certainly stronger than the Big XII which is essentially a two horse race. Bear in mind, though, that putting UCLA atop this list does not mean I am one hundred percent sure that they will reach the Elite Eight. The reason? Their just too small. I know guard play is crucial in the tournament - and they have the best point guard in land in Darren Collison - but a team like Pittsburgh or Georgetown, both of which have a nice blend of size and speed, could certainly knock the Bruins off before the regional finals.

2. Kansas

Because of Texas A&M's loss at Texas the other night, Kansas took control of the Big XII and, barring a Durant rampage at Allen Fieldhouse tommorrow, will be win the conference's regular season title and the top seed in the conference tournament. By the way, the Longhorns pulled that win out in double overtime, after Acie Law had hit a big shots in regulation and overtime to keep the Aggie hopes alive. The guy isn't human in crunch-time. I can't compare his last-second heroics to Jordan for obvious reasons, but I do see a parallel between him and Adam Vinatieri. The Colts' opponents always know they need a cushion of more than three points in the final seconds because Vinatieri is automatic. And with everything Law throws up going in these days, Aggie opponents would be wise to get more than a one possession lead in the game's final seconds if they don't want to play overtime. Back to Kansas: The Jayhawks have four guys averaging in double figures (five, if you round up Sherron Collin's average of 9.7 per game) and are playing well on both sides of the ball as they average nearly 70 points a game on offense and only give up about 60. The only real knock on this team is they have lost in the first round of the NCAA tournament the past two seasons. Right now, though, Kansas is a number one seed, and we all know a sixteen seed has never beaten a number one, right? Famous last words for Jayhawk fans.

3. Ohio State

I know they're the number one team in both polls but I just don't buy them as the top team what with Oden still obviously hampered by his ailing wrist and their inability to truly impress against top competition. They finally beat one of the teams that has made their schedule so vaunted this year in Wisconsin. Until last Sunday, though, Ohio State had gotten the benefit of the doubt in the polls because they played UNC and Florida. What we might want to focus on, instead, is the fact that they lost to both. Plus, their 49-48 win over Wisconsin showed grit but not much separation between them and the rest of the country. They have the inside presence and perimeter talent to ensure a number one seed but, as of now, I haven't seen quite enough from them in big games to think of them as the country's top team. Maybe it's because I don't respect the Big Ten this year, maybe it's because I think OSU is too young but I'm just not sold. I'm willing to listen to arguments on this one.

4. Wisconsin

About a week ago, Florida was the unanimous number one team in the land. But this week, I can't justify even having them in my top four. That's not to say they don't have what it takes to make the Final Four - they're undoubtedly more talented and experienced this year than last. I do think, however, that they've lost some of the intensity that made their run to the title possible last year. Yes, I'm aware that I'm definitely the first person to say they look like they've lost their intensity. It's not obvious at all. On top of that, they don't play nearly as good defense as the Badgers do. Wisconsin couldn't get anything going on offense last weekend, but good coaching and a commitment to moving their feet and helping each other out on D kept them in the game til the final seconds. With Kammron Taylor and Alando Tucker providing enough offensive punch on a consistent basis, this team has a real chance to reach the Final Four.

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