Teams 5-8
As promised, the next four of my current Elite Eight:
5. Florida
The Gators have been so inconsistent of late, I can't justify putting them in my top four. Still, they have the most experienced starting five in the county in Noah, Horford, Humphrey, Green and Brewer and they're guaranteed to limit mistakes in the postseason with Green as their point guard. To my mind, he was the unsung hero of last year's championship team. He ran the offense with composure and smarts and now he's added offensive production to his game, averaging 13 points a game which is second on the team only to Noah. Regardless of how well Green plays, Noah needs to bring back the intensity and fire that made him the story of last year's tournament. Maybe he is the kind of guy that can just turn it on. Maybe we didn't notice his slumps last year because the Gators slithered under the radar most of the year. But now, under heavy scrutiny, the guy just isn't producing. Most of his textbook fist pumps across his chest and wide open-mouthed screams in the past month have been in response to his poor play rather than big dunks or hustle plays that resulted in points or turnovers. Basically, he's turned in to Adam Morrison against UCLA. Not exactly confidence-inspiring stuff.
6. North Carolina
The Tar Heels are the scariest team in the country at this point because if they get hot - and play a lick of defense - they're going to be very difficult to stop. They have all the usual ingredients for a run to the title: Good guards in Lawson and Ellington, good post play in Hansbrough and depth off the bench. The Tar Heels play faster than "Space Balls'" ludicrous speed - Roy Williams generally refers to it as controlled chaos - which usually results in them running their opponent off the court. Yet when they don't guard well, they've been exposed as beatable. A recent article by Grant Wahl in Sports Illustrated, though, pointed out that this year's Heels compare favorably to the 2005 champs in terms of field goal percentage and points per game. In terms of experience, though, that team made the latest Tar Heels look like toddlers. One sure way of amending their inconsistent ways is to make defense more of a priority. UNC gives up an average of 68.5 points per game. Let's compare that to my top four teams: UCLA surrenders an average of 60.1, Kansas and Ohio State give up 60.7 per night and Wisconsin yields just 57.5. Until Carolina starts defending as those teams do, the Heels are will be too inconsistent and upset prone to be a Final Four team.
7. Texas A&M
Of all the teams in my 5-8, the Aggies have the best chance of advancing to the Final Four for one simple reason: Acie Law IV's shooting percentage in crunch time. I'm not sure what the stats actually are but I'm almost certain this isn't one of those times when a guy just seems clutch and is actually pretty average with the game on the line (as Baseball Prospectus always says about David Ortiz). Take, for example, his two big shots at the end of regulation and overtime to keep the Aggies alive against the Longhorns last Wednesday. The first shot, with almost no time remaining in the second half, was an off-balanced huck over an outstretched defender that had practically no back spin. And of course, nothing but net. Earlier this year - from almost the exact same spot on the court, beyond the arc, foul line extended - Law drained a three to bury the Jayhawks in Lawrence. Granted, Law isn't surrounded by the most talent in the country, but the Aggies defend (I'm starting to sound like my father the way I'm preaching defense) and they have enough size to draw attention down low and away from Law. Also, the importance of a fairly consistent ability to hit game-extending, clutch shots cannot be overstated. Think back to LSU's tournament run a year ago in which point guard Darrell Mitchell hit a three with virtually no time remaining to send the Tigers into the Sweet Sixteen. You can bet the Aggies are well aware of how important those shots can be - Mitchell's shot ended their season.
8. Texas
Before you overreact and say this is too high for an inexperienced Longhorn team, look at who's ranked in the top-15 other than the schools I've already put my top eight. Here they are: Memphis, Georgetown, Nevada, Southern Illinois, Pittsburgh, Washington State and Louisville. Given that Durant says his ankle is feeling healthy enough to compete in the Big XII tournament, you could argue that Texas would have a good chance of beating any of those teams. Right now, the Longhorns are a two-man team, yes, but those two guys are playing extraordinary basketball. Durant had 25 in the first half (is he serious?) against a Kansas team that has defended well all year - just ask Nebraska. So much for Julian Wright being athletic enough to shut him down. It's worth mentioning too that, unlike Noah, Durant never looks bored - even though you would think making legitimate college players look like you and me would get old after a while. Plus, the Longhorns have talent outside of Durant. D.J. Augustin no longer looks like a freshman point guard in pitching in 15 points and almost 7 assists a game. More importantly, he's taking care of the basketball. His turnover/assist ratio of 2 to 1 beats out UCLA's Darren Collison's 1.14 to 1 handily and Collison is widely considered the premier point guard in the country. For a team that doesn’t have the depth to overcome silly mistakes, Augustin is the perfect fit.
5. Florida
The Gators have been so inconsistent of late, I can't justify putting them in my top four. Still, they have the most experienced starting five in the county in Noah, Horford, Humphrey, Green and Brewer and they're guaranteed to limit mistakes in the postseason with Green as their point guard. To my mind, he was the unsung hero of last year's championship team. He ran the offense with composure and smarts and now he's added offensive production to his game, averaging 13 points a game which is second on the team only to Noah. Regardless of how well Green plays, Noah needs to bring back the intensity and fire that made him the story of last year's tournament. Maybe he is the kind of guy that can just turn it on. Maybe we didn't notice his slumps last year because the Gators slithered under the radar most of the year. But now, under heavy scrutiny, the guy just isn't producing. Most of his textbook fist pumps across his chest and wide open-mouthed screams in the past month have been in response to his poor play rather than big dunks or hustle plays that resulted in points or turnovers. Basically, he's turned in to Adam Morrison against UCLA. Not exactly confidence-inspiring stuff.
6. North Carolina
The Tar Heels are the scariest team in the country at this point because if they get hot - and play a lick of defense - they're going to be very difficult to stop. They have all the usual ingredients for a run to the title: Good guards in Lawson and Ellington, good post play in Hansbrough and depth off the bench. The Tar Heels play faster than "Space Balls'" ludicrous speed - Roy Williams generally refers to it as controlled chaos - which usually results in them running their opponent off the court. Yet when they don't guard well, they've been exposed as beatable. A recent article by Grant Wahl in Sports Illustrated, though, pointed out that this year's Heels compare favorably to the 2005 champs in terms of field goal percentage and points per game. In terms of experience, though, that team made the latest Tar Heels look like toddlers. One sure way of amending their inconsistent ways is to make defense more of a priority. UNC gives up an average of 68.5 points per game. Let's compare that to my top four teams: UCLA surrenders an average of 60.1, Kansas and Ohio State give up 60.7 per night and Wisconsin yields just 57.5. Until Carolina starts defending as those teams do, the Heels are will be too inconsistent and upset prone to be a Final Four team.
7. Texas A&M
Of all the teams in my 5-8, the Aggies have the best chance of advancing to the Final Four for one simple reason: Acie Law IV's shooting percentage in crunch time. I'm not sure what the stats actually are but I'm almost certain this isn't one of those times when a guy just seems clutch and is actually pretty average with the game on the line (as Baseball Prospectus always says about David Ortiz). Take, for example, his two big shots at the end of regulation and overtime to keep the Aggies alive against the Longhorns last Wednesday. The first shot, with almost no time remaining in the second half, was an off-balanced huck over an outstretched defender that had practically no back spin. And of course, nothing but net. Earlier this year - from almost the exact same spot on the court, beyond the arc, foul line extended - Law drained a three to bury the Jayhawks in Lawrence. Granted, Law isn't surrounded by the most talent in the country, but the Aggies defend (I'm starting to sound like my father the way I'm preaching defense) and they have enough size to draw attention down low and away from Law. Also, the importance of a fairly consistent ability to hit game-extending, clutch shots cannot be overstated. Think back to LSU's tournament run a year ago in which point guard Darrell Mitchell hit a three with virtually no time remaining to send the Tigers into the Sweet Sixteen. You can bet the Aggies are well aware of how important those shots can be - Mitchell's shot ended their season.
8. Texas
Before you overreact and say this is too high for an inexperienced Longhorn team, look at who's ranked in the top-15 other than the schools I've already put my top eight. Here they are: Memphis, Georgetown, Nevada, Southern Illinois, Pittsburgh, Washington State and Louisville. Given that Durant says his ankle is feeling healthy enough to compete in the Big XII tournament, you could argue that Texas would have a good chance of beating any of those teams. Right now, the Longhorns are a two-man team, yes, but those two guys are playing extraordinary basketball. Durant had 25 in the first half (is he serious?) against a Kansas team that has defended well all year - just ask Nebraska. So much for Julian Wright being athletic enough to shut him down. It's worth mentioning too that, unlike Noah, Durant never looks bored - even though you would think making legitimate college players look like you and me would get old after a while. Plus, the Longhorns have talent outside of Durant. D.J. Augustin no longer looks like a freshman point guard in pitching in 15 points and almost 7 assists a game. More importantly, he's taking care of the basketball. His turnover/assist ratio of 2 to 1 beats out UCLA's Darren Collison's 1.14 to 1 handily and Collison is widely considered the premier point guard in the country. For a team that doesn’t have the depth to overcome silly mistakes, Augustin is the perfect fit.
posted by jcanzo at 7:14 PM
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